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| 名称： 高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究（pdf 30) |
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| 所属分类： 投资管理 |
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| 文件大小： 884 KB |
| 更新时间： 2007-5-23 17:05:16 |
| 高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究（pdf 30)下载地址 |
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| ::高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究（pdf 30)电子书简介:: |
高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究（pdf 30)简介开始
Asia Pacific: Metals & Mining
Asian COAl: China holds the key on back of lower Indonesian supply
Key stance
We belIEve the risk/reward for the Asian and Chinese thermal cOAl market is still on
the downside. China is entering a volume rampup cycle—after a period of heavy
capex on greenfIEld and transportation infrastructure—potentially increasing
domestic and regional supply in 2H2006 and through 2007. The recent sharp rise in
marginal cost for Indonesian producers is incrementally positive, in our vIEw, but
not enough to slow rising export prices. We prefer China Shenhua among the listed
cOAl sTOCks we cover given its strong company-specific drivers.
Regional market improving marginally, China holds key to future
The sharp rebound in regional spot prices since late 2005 has largely been driven by
stronger Indian and Chinese imports, and a reduction in Chinese exports. Our
recent Indonesian visit highlighted potentially better Indonesian supply discipline
undERPinned by a rapid rise in producers’ marginal costs. Going forward, we
belIEve China’s net trade flow holds the key to the regional market’s outlook.
China: Volume rampup cycle points to downside risk
We belIEve this downcycle is supply-led in China. Growth in the key demand driver—
cOAl-fired power generation—remains strong at 13.4% ytd, compared to the average
over the last five years of 12.8%. The 5% decline in cOAl spot prices from this cycle’s
high of Rmb445/t in May 2005 has been undERPinned by transportation
debottlenecking which started in early 2005. Acceleration in small mine consolidation
could put further supply pressure on large mines commencing their volume rampup
cycle. The resulting fall in domestic prices may reverse the declining trend in net cOAl
exports and increase pressure on the regional market, for which we see downside risk.
STOCk implications: Prefer Shenhua, Yanzhou COAl upgraded
We prefer names with strong company-specific drivers—organic volume growth,
potential M&A opportunitIEs, and stable cost profiles—against the backdrop of weak
sector fundamentals. China Shenhua (Neutral) is our top sector pick, fitting all these
criteria. We would accumulate Shenhua if the share price were to drop below HK$13.5,
implying spot cOAl prices of Rmb380/t, the floor in our opinion. We have upgraded
Yanzhou Coal (YCM) to Neutral from Sell mainly on valuation and higher spot cOAl price
floor levels. We maintain our Neutral rating on Banpu due to flat cOAl volume growth.
Potential positive earnings contributions from BLCP Power (BLCP) are largely priced in, in
our opinion. We have transferred sTOCk coverage of Banpu to Song Shen from Rick Loo.
高盛——中国煤炭行业深度研究（pdf 30)简介结束,下载后阅读全部内容 |
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