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| 名称： 理性预期革命如何改变宏观经济政策研究(pdf 26) |
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| 所属分类： 投资管理 |
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| 更新时间： 2007-5-24 10:03:34 |
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| ::理性预期革命如何改变宏观经济政策研究(pdf 26)电子书简介:: |
理性预期革命如何改变宏观经济政策研究(pdf 26)简介开始
he rational expectations hypothesis is by far the most common expectations assumption
used in macroeconomic research today. This hypothesis, which simply states that people's
expectations are the same as the forecasts of the model being used to describe those people, was
first put forth and used in models of competitive product markets by John Muth in the 1960s.
But it was not until the early 1970s that Robert Lucas (1972, 1976) incorporated the rational
expectations assumption into macroeconomics and showed how to make it operational
mathematically. The “rational expectations revolution” is now as old as the Keynesian
revolution was when Robert Lucas first brought rational expectations to macroeconomics.
This rational expectations revolution has led to many different schools of macroeconomic
research. The new classical economics school, the real business cycle school, the new Keynesian
economics school, the new political macroeconomics school, and more recently the new
neoclassical synthesis (GoodfrIEnd and King (1997)) can all be traced to the introduction of
rational expectations into macroeconomics in the early 1970s (see the discussion by Snowden
and Vane (1999), pp. 30-50).
In this lecture, which is part of the theme on "The Current State of Macroeconomics" at
the 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association, I address a question that I
am frequently asked by students and by "non-macroeconomist" colleagues, and that I suspect
may be on many people's minds. The question goes like this: "We know that many different
schools of thought have evolved from the rational expectations revolution, but has mainstrEAM
policy research in macroeconomics really changed much as a result?" The term "mainstrEAM"
focuses the question on the research methods that are used in practice by macroeconomists—
whether they are at universities, research institutions, or policy agencIEs—when they work on
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actual policy issues; perhaps the phrase “practical core” of policy evaluation research in
macroeconomics would be a better description than “mainstrEAM.”
理性预期革命如何改变宏观经济政策研究(pdf 26)简介结束,下载后阅读全部内容 |
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