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| 名称： 德银：中国汽车行业研究（英文版）(pdf21) |
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| 所属分类： 行业报告 |
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| 更新时间： 2007-6-5 9:02:18 |
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| ::德银：中国汽车行业研究（英文版）(pdf21)电子书简介:: |
德银：中国汽车行业研究（英文版）(pdf21)简介开始
Headwinds expected in 2005
We are concerned about the headwinds facing automakers going into
2005. Issues include the potential for continued lacklustre demand, pricing
pressure and competition. Amidst these tough conditions, we feel there
are some automakers that can still achIEve earnings growth. We
emphasise sTOCk picking despite our cautious sector stance.
Deutsche Bank AG
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companIEs covered in its research reports. Thus, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
China Auto Sector Channel Check
Top picks
Chongqing Changan-A Buy
Key changes
Denway (04F EPS) 0.33 to 0.30 -11%
Brilliance China (04F EPS) 0.20 to 0.19 -7%
Geely (04F EPS) 0.05 to 0.04 -36%
CompanIEs featured
Denway (0203.HK), HK$2.8 Hold
2003A 2004F 2005F
P/E (x) 8.7 8.2 8.4
EV/EBITDA (x) NM 240.1 190.3
Price/book (x) 5.6 2.8 2.3
Brilliance China (1114.HK), HK$1.73 Sell
2003A 2004F 2005F
P/E (x) 10.2 8.9 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.7 3.9 3.5
Price/book (x) 2.4 1.0 1.0
Chongqing Changan-A (000625.SZ), RMB6.13 Buy
2003A 2004F 2005F
P/E (x) 12.5 7.0 6.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 2.4 2.0
Price/book (x) 3.87 1.40 1.19
Geely Auto (0175.HK), HK$0.42 Buy
2003A 2004F 2005F
P/E (x) 41.1 7.3 4.9
EV/EBITDA (x) NM NM NM
Price/book (x) 5.79 2.14 1.57
Monthly car sales
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Oct-02
Dec-02
Feb-03
Apr-03
Jun-03
Aug-03
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
180%
sales vol. +/-% YoY
Passenger car growth forecast
2003 2004F 2005F
Volume ('000) 1,972 2,277 2,573
Growth (%) 75 15 13
Upcoming events Date
Guangzhou Auto Show
Guangzhou Nov 2004
CEIBS Auto Conference
Shanghai Nov 2004
DB China Conference
Beijing Mar 2005
Related recent research Date
Changan Auto
Eugene Yeoh Nov 2004
China Auto Sector
Eugene Yeoh Oct 2004
Global Auto Industry
Global Auto TEAM Sept 2004
Global
Equity Industry Focus Research
Second installment of our quarterly dealer survey
This is the second installment of DB’s quarterly China auto dealer survey.
While we thought the previous survey was downbeat, the sentiment this
time around is even more pessimistic. As the anticipated 4Q rebound did
not materialise, most dealers are losing their optimism for a market
revival. They now expect the weakness to persist into 2005.
Market may not recover in 2005
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